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PostPosted: Thu Oct 18, 2018 12:30 pm 

Joined: Mon Aug 27, 2018 8:22 pm
Posts: 174
You or I have some misconception concerning the morale, disorder, and rout feature. I will reread everything I think I've learned and come back swinging so, pack your lunch Hamburger! ;p
Read the link ACW has the same morale logic as NB. This 50:50 for 25 casualties no matter the size thing confuses me. I'd trash such a program in a second. It's better to disregard the term 'morale check' altogether for clarity;
1)unit take losses
2)disorder check [0, 1] < l / (l+b) is immediate
3)if unit fails it is disordered and flagged for rout check on following turn
4)next force turn it rout checks [1, 6] > qual +/- mod
5)if unit passes rout check it is disordered (again)

"d6 approach is too raw.. usual lowest level of C that slid units have already gives a 66% chance"

These are mutually exclusive statements. Disorder recovery test is probably done before rout check but, it can be assumed the C-4 quality value will be reduced by 1 when it checks for rout the following turn. Effectively there are 5 values a scripter can work with for rout check parity and enfilade fire which happens so often is a -2 mod in itself. H&R embraced the suck by giving base units a D quality. Not such a good idea. Using fanatical (+1, maybe +2) units all around is probably the best means so that the other quality modifiers aren't disturbed.

500 man C quality unit attached to an in command brigadier with C command level receives 50 casualties. Disruption test: 50 / (50 + 500 / 10) = 1/2 chance of immediate disruption. If disrupted then at next turn disruption recovery test: (4 + 1) / 6 = 5/6 chance of disruption recovery. If recovered then rout test: 2/3 chance of disruption or 1/3 chance of rout. Disruption * rout results compound chance of routing is: 1/2 * 1/3 = 1/6.
Not bad really but, I gave the unit an in command leader which is a great bonus compared to 1/6 recovery and if failed then 1/2 chance of rout. A compound rout chance of 1/4. Still not as bad as I imagined it. Now extrapolate these common 1/6 and 1/4 rout chances to a battleline (with 50 casualty mean attacks) and you get a much more chaotic picture but, if things look okay in singular example I'm satisified.

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