I have had a close look at the campaign tree for HPS Gettysburg, and it seems to me that, while the campaign is potentially rather complex and long, there is plenty of chances for it to end very early, i.e. after the second battle. For instance, if the Feds win a MV at Brandy Station (which from what I've seen happens a lot), then there are twelve campaign choices for the Union and two for the Rebs, for a total of twenty-four combinations. Sixteen of those combinations mean that the second battle is the last one in the campaign and decides the outcome; even if it ends as a draw, the campaign also ends (as a draw). In fact, one of the two Reb choices means invariably that the second battle is the last, regardless of the Union decision. In the unlikely event of a *Reb* MV at Brandy Station it's twelve Reb options and four Federal ones, for a total of forty-eight combinations. Forty-four of those mean the second battle decides the campaign.
Are the chances for a third battle any better if Brandy Station ends as a mV or a draw? Just slightly. In this case, the Feds have four options, the Rebs have two, for a total of eight combinations. Of these eight, four mean that the campaign ends after the second battle. Again, it depends on the Reb decision; one of their two options invariably means that the second battle is the last, regardless of the Federal decision.
In other words, of the total eighty combinations of Fed and Reb campaign decision options after Brandy Station, no less than sixty-four mean that the second battle is the last one in the campaign. In fact, whenever the Rebs choose "Concentrate at Culpeper - 3rd Corps screens the right flank on 6/15" (they always get this option, regardless of the outcome of Brandy Station), the second battle ends the campaign. Likewise, all options in which the Rebs attack over the Rappahannock (they can do that only after a MV at Brandy Station) make the second battle the final one.
Which means, afterall, that the chances of ever getting to fight in the Valley or PA are rather poor.
Gen. Walter, USA
AoS / War College
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