“There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics”. - Benjamin Disraeli (1804 - 1881)
“Get your facts first, and then you can distort them as much as you please. (Facts are stubborn, but statistics are more pliable.)” - Mark Twain (1835 - 1910)Well put sentiments, by two intelligent men.
Unfortunately,the following post contains statistics.
These statistics are based on factual collections of Data - stored at the ACWGC Department of Records.
This research has been examined with the quotations above very much to the forefront of the researcher's mind.
It is presented below without bias, criticism or insidious motive.
Facts that emerge during an examination of DoR records, freely available to all ACWGC members, are as they are – unvarnished, unembellished and unambiguously interpreted.
There are further facets of the Topic examined during the research ( to be made available at a later stage in this proposed debate), but to include them all now, would possibly divert or distort attention to the basic premise of this Subject – and possibly bore the pants off any readers, thus discouraging members’ contributions.
The intention of this research is to stimulate debate and for the Cabinet, Commanders of the Armies and the Rank and File of the ACWGC to examine the figures given and to determine a course (if any is deemed necessary) to follow.
As a courtesy – both to myself and the ACWGC membership in its entirety, I would request, enjoin and encourage the CoA’s to deliver a copy of the text below, through their Chains of Command to all Officers in their respective Commands, thus ensuring that the entire Membership is aware of the facts displayed below, with an encouragement to contribute any thoughts or opinions resulting from this information to this thread. Alternatively, I would request that all officers – via the same method – would be sent the address of this thread, with an encouragement to read, consider and digest the contents and again, to contribute in a like manner to the first suggestion in this paragraph.The address for this Thread is:
viewtopic.php?f=4&t=16710Finally, as to the motivation behind this research – any comment, suggestion or apparent opinion expressed is meant as rhetorical and neutral; as possible directions that subsequent debate could follow.
There is no intent to cause embarrassment, to imply criticism of, to denigrate or to demean any ACWGC members or individuals or groups of individuals, up to and including members of the Cabinet.
My personal input will appear separately and distinctly during the thread.
There are currently 152 active Union Officers and 219 active Confederate Officers in the ACWGC – giving the ACWGC a total membership of 371 active members.
This gives a percentage split between the sides of the Club of 41/59 as USA/CSA.
Since the opening of the DoR –
330 Union Officers and 294 Confederates have ‘fallen’ – left the Club for Retirement, Hospital duties or Leaves of Absence.
Had these ‘lost’ officers remained with the Club: The Union would currently have 482 Active Officers and the CSA would currently have 513 Active Officers.
The ACWGC total membership would then stand at 995 Officers. (Potential Membership Total)
Realistically speaking – the Potential Membership Total is patently an impossible aspiration. No matter how successful any Internet based Club could ever be . . . a 100% retention rate could never be achieved, particularly for a Club with a 10+ year ‘Life’.
However, for the purpose of this research, the Potential Membership Total (+5 extra ‘mythical’ members - for the convenience of rounding the numbers) has been used to determine Member Retention rates following this formula:
(Current Active Members divided by PMT) & multiplied by 100 = Retention Rate of Active ACWGC Members (expressed as a percentage).
This formula results in the following statistics:
The Union holds a Retention Rate of 31.5%. The CSA holds a Retention Rate of 42.7.
The ACWGC as a whole, holds a Membership Retention Rate of 37.1 %
Broken down into simplified (rounded off) numbers and expressed in very general terms, based on the figures given above –
The Club averages are:
Of every 10 Recruits joining the ACWGC that will remain in the Club for an appreciable amount of time ( 2-3 years) - stands at 3 and 3 quarters. (-ish).
Of every 10 Recruits joining the Union, 3 will stay – (almost 1 below the Club average).
Of every 10 Recruits joining the CSA, 4 will stay – (slightly above the Club average).
As an Internet based Games Club . . . a 37% retention rate is quite an achievement . . . . and couldn’t be genuinely complained about - is there a potential for improvement?
And could the disparity between the USA and CSA be resolved?
Although the difference doesn’t appear to be particularly excessive (in actual Lost Officer numbers spanning the service period of the DoR) . . . at 36 more USA than CSA officers leaving the Club,(roughly 10% of ACWGC ‘Lost’ Officers) suggests that either :
i) Some Union Officers are leaving the Club and the records are somehow not accurately reflecting the Rate of ‘Loss’. (unlikely).
OR
ii) The Recruitment Rates (if such were available), for both sides would reflect similar numbers – but in reverse (most likely).
Basically speaking – from the statistics and records available - it is appears that for every 3 CSA Officers recruited to join the ACWGC, 4 USA Officers are recruited.
However, the disparity between the two ‘halves’ of the ACWGC, appears to suggest that whilst the Union are better ACWGC Recruiters – the CSA are better Retainers.
If there was a provable reversal of recruitment numbers as postulated above, combined with the factual numbers of ‘Lost’ Officers, there would exist a 50/50 balance which is not displayed in the active membership of the ACWGC. (Simply put – there would be roughly as many Union members as there are Confederates).
For obvious reasons . . . the Club ‘ideal’ would appear to be a situation where - for every one Union Officer, there would be one CSA Officer . . . and vice versa. A 50/50 split in active member numbers, if You like.
Again, realistically speaking – this is most likely an impossible goal. The Union – for historical and personal preference reasons, would probably hold a continuous ‘edge’, in regard to recruitment.
However, for the ‘Health’ and Continuity, for the Longevity of the ACWGC . . . is it a target that should be aimed towards?
And with these two additional rhetorical questions – I open the Topic to debate.
Can ACWGC Retention statistics be improved?
If the majority opinion is that they can be improved - how can this be best achieved?
Pat.