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| Recovery From Disorder https://wargame.ch/board/nwc/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=17754 |
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| Author: | Alexey Tartyshev [ Sat Aug 16, 2025 7:19 am ] |
| Post subject: | Recovery From Disorder |
Gentlemen, A question has been raised regarding the probability of disorder recovery and the likelihood of re-order, depending on the command chain in place. I ran some numbers crunching based on sections 5.4.1 and 5.4.5 of the manual. While there remains some minor uncertainty (the calculations can be structured slightly differently), the outcomes are broadly consistent either way. For your reference and planning, here are the probabilities to consider for the following command chain scenarios Brigade > Division > Corps > Army: __________________________________________________ Detached unit → 1/6 (one chance out of six) Brigade > unit → 1/4 Division > B > unit → 1/3 Corps > D > B > unit → 1/2 Army > C > D > B > unit → 2/3 __________________________________________________ These assume the most common command ratings found in majority of sncarios: Brigade = E Division = D Corps = C Army = B Bottom line: keep in mind that a detached division deployed on the defensive will struggle to maintain ordered ranks under consistent pressure and will be unable to sustain momentum on the offensive by rotating disordered units. A division under a detached corps leader already has a decent chance (50%) of maintaining order on the defensive, and can also sustain offensive momentum by rotating brigades on the attack. Always study your command chain before battle, and pay attention to leaders’ command ratings — some divisional and brigade commanders may have exceptional ratings above standard. These formations are the candidates for flanking maneuvers or for holding remote sectors, capable of prolonged action even out of command. A classic example would be Davout’s corps in the Ausrterd scenario from 1807 title. Finally, be aware of losses in the command chain — the loss of a brigade leader and the appearance of the anonymous colonel (command rating F) will reduce the re-order probability from 2/3 to 1/2, even when the full command chain of A > C > D > B is present. If the division the anonymous belongs to is detached, then the chances are only 1/5 even whith Divisional commander present. This means brigade leaders should be used in melee only when it is absolutelty critical. |
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| Author: | Alexey Tartyshev [ Sat Aug 16, 2025 3:22 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Recovery From Disorder |
the link to the calculator: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... ue&sd=true |
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| Author: | Steve Simenic [ Mon Aug 18, 2025 4:07 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Recovery From Disorder |
Very interesting analysis, thank you for sharing Alexey! |
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